Iraq: a retrospective

So Bush did the right thing with the surge? He decided to try to salvage a very bad situation by doubling down. Would another commander in chief do the same thing with a huge mistake he'd already invested a huge amount of his country's money and his own reputation -- not to mention the lives -- on? Probably. Bush, least of all, would understand the fallacy of sunk costs.

People, mostly Democrats, had suggested withdrawal, unless political progress was made towards reconciliation. And finally Malliki is making that progress, after the American electorate seemed ready to leave him holding the bag. Meanwhile Bush being obstinate, refused timetables. Without the pressure of the American people, Malliki would have taken even more time than he has in making that small progress. But even with these f--k ups, finally it seems possible for the American military to make a withdrawal from Iraq.

Let's take a Machievellian, er, practical, look at this result:
On the negative side:
(1) Bush, Republicans, and America's reputation stained by false data, fundamentally flawed process, leading to unnecessary war against a non-threatening country far away
(2) $1.2+ trillion spent on aforementioned unnecessary war using borrowed money, leading to weakened US dollar
(3) Enemy Iran strengthened by elimination of hostile neighbor
(4) Taliban and Al Qaeda extremists still not eliminated, both stronger than if the US hadn't gone into Iraq, Afghanistan still unstable
(5) Political uncertainty in the middle east raises oil prices and makes US electorate unhappy
(6) High oil prices strengthen enemies and authoritarian regimes such as Venezuela, Iran, Russia.
On the plus side:
(1) Small but potentially lucrative oil contracts made with companies from western countries, though not all companies are American, despite huge US investment in Iraq.
Seems like a raw deal for Americans handed us by Bush. If the surge hadn't worked, things would have been even worse.

Krugman on Petraeus and Failure of Surge

NYT (Times Select is now free) Krugman shows that the dog and pony for the surge by supposedly credible Petraeus is just the same phony marketing as put out by Colin Powell before the war.

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More Times Select

Friedman on Iraq

Krugman again a few days later on Iraq.

Frank Rich on Iraq: "As the Iraqis stand down, we'll stand up."

Krugman on Republicans use of race and division to entice Southern whites to their cause.

Dowd calls Fred Thompson warmed over W.

Junior officers question wisdom of Generals

Link Wonder what my HS classmate -- who last I heard is an army major -- really thinks. Of course, I may never find out.

Iraq war unlike others

Link W says withdrawal will make it like Vietnam. Historians say otherwise.

US Army Soldiers in Iraq write insightful opinion on NYT

Link In short, they say the Americans should step aside.

Iraq Parliament takes summer off

AmericaBlog.com creates an ironic spot and posts on YouTube

Supposed positive uptick in Iraq (Updated)

Link The supposedly non-partisan Brookings Institution sent two of their people, O'Hanlon and Pollack, to investigate the situation in Iraq and they gave a positive report to latest measures.

But Salon's Greenwald disputes (link) the validity of the opinion of these two particular academics who actually were particularly hawkish at the war's start, and appear now trying to salvage any shred of value in their plan gone awry.

Canadian Liberal critiques Iraq reasoning

Link A quote from the article (emphasis mine):
"Good judgment in politics, it turns out, depends on being a critical judge of yourself. It was not merely that the president did not take the care to understand Iraq. He also did not take the care to understand himself. The sense of reality that might have saved him from catastrophe would have taken the form of some warning bell sounding inside, alerting him that he did not know what he was doing. But then, it is doubtful that warning bells had ever sounded in him before. He had led a charmed life, and in charmed lives warning bells do not sound."

Sport has its uses

Link A better way to keep violence to a minimum. Soccer, jobs and prosperity?

NIE released: War in Iraq has created Al Qaeda in Iraq

Link We all know now that Saddam didn't ally with anyone including Al Qaeda. After attacking Iraq we've created a two pronged war against Al Qaeda. Isn't that lovely? I've got to say we've got the stupidest President and had an idiot Congress to just go along with the ride.

Moderate Sunnis helping the Americans in Iraq

Link If there is some hope in Iraq it is somewhat expressed by this winning over of the moderate Sunnis to help the Americans. It's obvious these Iraqis are worried about what will happen once the Americans leave and the Shia are left alone to manage the country. Surely, the Americans will stay in some capacity, but it all depends on the political support for the war back home. It's interesting, but sensible, that the moderate Sunnis were only willing to help after they saw that the extremists were obviously losing.

Iran the cause of some mayhem against US in Iraq

Link The US asserts they have been training and arming Shiites in Iraq to attack Americans.

Americans getting a little smarter in Iraq

Link At least someone is thinking.

-- Updated 6/24

Apparently it didn't work. High level Al Qaeda has left the region. Link

U.S. Civilian Surge -- State Dept

Link The CS Monitor reports on a much smaller, but hopefully effective civilian surge which will bring training for oversight and other governing functions.

Surge not quite as expected

Link Dare I say it? Does it seem like it's not working? I do tend to give up too easily. Perhaps we should wait longer for more soldiers to get killed.

See this post on a similar theme about Delta company.

Special Ops (Special forces) in Iraq

Link Hadn't heard much about SF in Iraq, but I guess they're doing somethin'.

If the Americans leave Iraq things would get worse before getting better

Link In the article, a Sunni says: "Still, we need America to make the country more stable and not leave Iraq in the trouble, which they, themselves, have caused."

I'm sure I'll regret saying this, but I think things will get worse when the Americans leave certainly. But then they will get better as it gets naturally partitioned and American forces stop artificially propping up the place. The insurgents may eventually go for scorched Earth policy, but maybe not.

Half the Iraqi army are insurgents?

Link No wonder the Delta company is disillusioned.

Big loss brings soldiers to say "I love you, man!", but too late for the sarge

Link Squad searching for missing soldiers in Iraq suffers heavy casualties from an off-road bomb and has a small emotional breakdown.

General Batiste speaks against Iraq war in ads

Link He was fired by CBS as a consultant shortly thereafter -- I got a mail from Moveon.org to petition Les Moonves to reinstate him. But perhaps the beginning of a new political career for Batiste?